Thousands of people from the Bay Area and across the country are descending on Black Rock Desert in northwest Nevada this weekend for Burning Man, as the outlandish event running Aug. 28 to Sept. 5 is back after a two-year COVID-induced hiatus.

Burners, as attendees are known, will gather over the next week, creating a temporary society of towering sculptures, pyrotechnics, Mad Max-esque car cruises, artist performances and general debauchery, known as Black Rock City. And the weather this year promises everything from howling winds to blazing hot afternoons that quickly become bitterly cold nights.

Burners drive through dust clouds on the playa in 2014.

Burning Man’s infamous playa basin sits along the base of an ancient lakebed and is surrounded on all sides by the jagged peaks of the Great Basin. This extreme environment makes for otherworldly dust storms, with gusts clocking in at more than 30 mph, fantastic thunder and lightning, and heat sizzling beyond 100 degrees.

The wild weather in Black Rock City is largely thanks to convective currents that rise along the sides of the playa basin. These currents form when hot air rises, cools then sinks back down to the ground. When there is moisture in the air, these currents can manifest towering thunderstorms that carry rain and winds down to the desert floor.

The amount of lightning flashes expected during the first weekend of Burning Man, with light blues signaling one to two strikes and greens and reds signaling more than 25 strikes. Most of the lightning looks to remain well outside the Burning Man grounds.

However, unlike previous years, and what some other forecasts have called for, the chances for thunderstorms during this year’s burn are below 5% — meaning extremely unlikely — thanks to a high-pressure system that will sit over the site for most of the week.

Even without moisture, these currents will almost-certainly form dust devils that can launch tents and even (ugh) portable toilets into the air. Infamous dust storms — equally beloved and feared by attendees — can also form rapidly if enough sediments are captured by these currents.

Bursts of wind of 20 to 25 mph (purples and pinks) will be possible every afternoon, with isolated bursts between 35-45 mph possible at some of the campgrounds on Wednesday and Thursday.

Keep an eye out for whirling dust every afternoon between the hours of noon and 8 p.m. and be sure to secure your belongings if winds begin to pick up around your camp.

The highest chances for these wind storms to develop look to be on the afternoons of Wednesday and Thursday, when gusts of wind could reach up to 35 mph. Isolated pockets of wind gusts could also briefly top out at 40 to45 mph near the camps in the late afternoon.

These storms form rapidly, so we can’t tell you just when or where one will break out. Keep your goggles and scarf — or respirator — on you!

Burners share a kiss as the sun rises over “Embrace,” a wooden art installation that was burned during the 2014 gathering.

If that’s not enough, playa weather at night can quickly turn bitterly cold as 95- to 100-degree heat escapes the desert and temperatures plummet into the 50s. Expect your body to experience 40-plus-degree swings in temperature every single day the event runs.

Sunday and Labor Day weekend look to have the coldest nights, with some camps likely to drop to 50 degrees before sunrise.

A zero-gravity lunar rover with a water-cooled suit at Burning Man 2014.

Despite the extremes, Burning Man devotees will flock to the event after months of prepping.

Whether you love Black Rock weather or not, this year will provide the infamous extremes Burners know well. Don’t forget your goggles mask, or what some consider the most important item: baby wipes!

Gerry Diaz (he/they) is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer and Hannah Hagemann (she/her) is a San Francisco Chronicle staff editor. Email: gerry.diaz@sfchronicle.com, hannah.hagemann@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @geravitywave, @hannah_hagemann

Gerry Díaz is The San Francisco Chronicle's first ever Newsroom Meteorologist.

He previously served as a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Bay Area, working from the agency's Monterey office. In that position he led an initiative aimed at increasing outreach to Spanish speaking communities during extreme weather events.

Most recently he worked as a meteorology specialist for utility Southern California Edison.

Díaz enjoys hiking through California's national parks and shooting panoramic photography, including of the Central Coast.